Elephant Wars and Gerrymandering Scores
West Virginia results, plus more racist maps coming in the South
On Wednesdays, we do election results (...when available).
And we do updates on other things!
… I’m sorry but the updates are mostly bad.
But let’s postpone the badness for, like, just a minute.
Morning Hour
On Tuesday, the most interesting downballot primaries were in West Virginia.
In my last missive, I mentioned that GOP Gov. Patrick Morrisey was up to some “heavy meddling” in yesterday’s legislative primaries.
While not quite as expensive as the MAGA effort to oust anti-gerrymandering Republicans in Indiana’s state Senate last week, more than $5 million reportedly was spent among multiple PACs, “many bolstered by out-of-state donors with ties to Morrisey and the school choice movement.”
This R-on-R violence resulted from Morrisey’s perception that some GOP lawmakers were insufficiently “pro-Trump,” even branding some as “liberal.”
The gov’s top target was House Finance Chair (a super powerful position, by the by) Vernon Criss, who beefed publicly with Morrisey over budget issues.
Morrisey even traveled to the district to campaign against Criss – honestly a pretty wild thing for a sitting governor to do against a member of their own party.
On Tuesday, Criss lost his primary to 23-year-old Charles Hartzog, a part-time Walmart employee.
Yes seriously
It’s looking like 13 other GOP incumbents lost their primary races, which is a pretty serious shakeup.
And House Speaker Roger Hanshaw is NOT happy about it.
“It is sad that the governor chose to insert himself where he did not belong rather than focusing on doing his own job these past several months,” said Hanshaw, R-Clay. “The House leadership and all the House members will always focus on things that matter to West Virginia and its people rather than the out-of-state interests that fund the governor’s PACs and pollute our mailboxes.”
House Finance Vice Chair Clay Riley was also a Morrisey target, but he survived the primary.
In the likely event he becomes committee chair, he’s unlikely to forget the governor’s attempt to oust him.
Del. Scot Heckert, yet another Morrisey target, lost his primary but isn’t going out quietly.
Not only does Heckert plan to run again in 2028, he doesn’t think Morrisey will win reelection when he’s up that year.
Further, Heckert believes that “negativity” and Morrisey’s involvement in the Elephant Wars could lead to “20 to 30 Democrats being elected to the House during the general election.”
This would double or triple the current House Dem caucus membership of nine.
Two of Morrisey’s top targets in the Senate survived their primaries, while two others did not.
But that’s not all of the action in West Virginia last night.
The Mountain State also held judicial elections yesterday.
And two of Morrisey’s appointees got themselves booted.
… which is plenty interesting in and of itself, but it also suggests that a good chunk of the electorate isn’t exactly Team Morrisey – he might have the tough road to reelection that Heckert predicts.
Black Bear PAC, a group that spent millions supporting Morrisey in 2024, spent thousands of dollars to help keep his appointees on the bench of the state’s highest court.
It’s also worth noting that conservative judicial villain and super rich guy Leonard Leo’s First Principles PAC also spent money to keep one of those Morrisey appointees on the state Supreme Court.
Oops!
Second Reading
Wow, I think that’s the most I’ve ever written about West Virginia politics. Fun!
Anyway, enough Elephant Wars. Back to the Racist Redistricting Races.
Yesterday, I was pleased to write about a handful of Republicans in the South Carolina Senate joining forces with Dems to block the GOP’s opportunity to eliminate the seat of the state’s lone Black member of the US House (and lone Democrat, by the by).
But nothing gold can stay, and – speaking of gold, or at least someone who’s really into it – South Carolina GOP Gov. Henry McMaster has finally buckled to pressure from Donald Trump to facilitate the redrawing of the state’s congressional map in time for the 2026 elections.
McMaster initially refused to call a special session for gerrymandering, which left it up to Republicans in the legislature to try to enable it on their own (an effort five Senate GOPers effectively stymied).
When McMaster calls the special session (he can’t do it before regular session adjourns on Thursday), Republicans will need simple majorities in each chamber (House: 88 R/36 D; Senate: 34 R/12 D) to approve their racist gerrymander.
Mississippi, meanwhile, is unlikely to re-gerrymander its maps ahead of the midterms.
GOP Gov. Tate Reeves said this week that he wants redraws of the maps for not only the US House, but also of the state legislature and the state Supreme Court,ahead of the 2027 elections, when the latter two bodies will be up for election.
Third Reading
So, a little back of napkin math (with the acknowledgement that not all of these gerrymanders have passed yet):
Texas: +5 R
California: +5 D
Missouri: +1 R
North Carolina: +1 R
Florida: +4 R
Tennessee: +1 R
Louisiana: +1-2 R
Alabama: +1-2 R
South Carolina: +1 R
(Georgia is planning to re-gerrymander, too, but for 2028)
That puts Republicans ahead by 10 to 12 US House seats in the gerrymandering wars.
…unless, say, someone with real juice can pressure Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger into okaying the nuclear option to forcibly retire the state Supreme Court, setting up the possibility that Dems still get the D+4 map that voters approved in April
How much would Democrats have to outperform Republicans by to actually win a majority in the House in the midterms?
Not a rhetorical question, please someone do this math
I’m so old that I remember when (2012, specifically) Democrats won more votes nationwide in House races but still ended up in the minority.
Could that happen again?
Point of personal privilege
One last little thing:
Today I’m announcing a brand new addition to my Substack dealio: a This Week in Statehouse Action subscriber chat.
This is a conversation space exclusively for subscribers—kind of like a group chat or live hangout. I’ll post questions and updates that come my way, and you can jump into the discussion, ask questions that I may or may not be able to answer, etc.
How to get started
Get the Substack app by clicking this link or the button below. New chat threads won’t be sent sent via email, so turn on push notifications so you don’t miss conversation as it happens. You can also access chat on the web.
Open the app and tap the Chat icon. It looks like two bubbles in the bottom bar, and you’ll see a row for my chat inside.
That’s it! Jump into my thread to say hi, and if you have any issues, check out Substack’s FAQ.