Statehouse One-Acts: Badgered edition
... plus a Tennessee cameo, because boy howdy does that place suck
… yeah I’m also not sure about the name for the lite version and am open to suggestions!
Also, apologies for this coming so late in the week – it’s been, well, a week.
Anyway.
Quick Wisconsin update:
Last week, I dove pretty deeply into the status of potential new legislative maps in Wisconsin.
To avoid what would both feel like plagiarizing myself and likely bore you to tears, the super abbreviated version of the situation is that
Wisconsin Republicans were extremely freaked out about the recent 4-3 progressive majority on the state Supreme Court, because they worried their absurdly gerrymandered state legislative maps would get tossed,
And the 4-3 progressive majority on the Wisconsin Supreme Court tossed those maps in December,
And in January, several people/groups proposed new maps, including state Democrats, some academic redistricting efforts, and Gov. Tony Evers
And Evers’ maps mostly un-fucked the current GOP gerrymander, but of all the maps not submitted by the GOP, it was the one most favorable to Republicans,
And Republicans themselves decided to pass Evers’ proposed maps through the legislature in an effort to preempt the state Supreme Court’s selection and implementation of maps even more unfavorable to them (also Republicans want to delay their implementation from “immediately” to “general elections in November”).
Last week, the big question was: will Evers sign the maps?
This week, he did.
The whole matter isn’t quite done and dusted – AG Josh Kaul has asked the Court to keep the case open to apply “entertain motions” regarding applying the new maps to any special or recall elections (at least one state Senate special is happening) that occur before November, and the Court will still likely review them to make sure they comply with the criteria it established in its December ruling.
But … this goose might be just about cooked.
Here’s what the new maps mean electorally.
Republicans currently hold a 64-35 majority in the Assembly and a 22-10 supermajority in the Senate, with one Democratic-leaning Senate seat vacant (SD-04, the above-mentioned special).
Daily Kos Elections analysis indicates (based on how Trump and Biden would have fared in these districts in 2020) that the new Assembly map would give Republicans a 50-49 majority, while the new Senate map would produce an 18-15 majority for Democrats.
It’s worth noting, though, that the Evers maps may create enough swingy seats to deny both Republicans and Democrats majority locks on either chamber.
Also worth noting: only the 17 odd-numbered districts in the state Senate are on the ballot in 2024, likely preserving the Republicans’ majority in that chamber through 2026.
Overall, though, this is pretty good news for both democracy generally and Democrats specifically, without it being awful news for Republicans.
Anyway, coupla more quick hits before I dip:
Last week, I wasn’t the only one noting Democrats’ continued success in special elections this cycle and the good things that might mean for this fall’s elections.
Meanwhile, the extremely smart Nathaniel Rakich (he used to work for me, so yes, I’m totally biased but still correct) is pouring a little cold water on that vibe, noting that Republicans have started overperforming in some of the specials held on and since Nov. 7, 2023, resulting in an average +1 R overperformance over the past two months and change (vs. the +11 D overperformance over the rest of 2023).
That’s far from an apples-to-apples comparison, though, and Dems are still overperforming Republicans over all of this cycle’s specials by an average of 6 points.
But something to keep an eye on.
And finally, while same-sex marriage is still legal in Tennessee (and nationwide), the legislature’s GOP majority would really like it to not be.
To this end, they recently passed this tiny bitch of a law (the governor signed it on Wednesday) that allows any government official (think judges, notaries public, and elected officials, as opposed to religious officials, who can already refuse to perform a marriage if it they think it violates their official religiousness) to refuse to perform (“solemnize,” in Tennessee code) any marriage for literally any reason.
Seriously, Republicans stripped the “based on the person’s conscience or religious beliefs” part from the original bill before they passed it.
Public officials are still required to issue marriage licenses for same-sex couples, and obviously most couples probably wouldn’t want someone who thinks they shouldn’t get married to perform their marriage, but government officials should be required to follow the government’s laws – in terms of who they perform marriages for and otherwise.
Also, even though county clerks are required to issue marriage licenses/certificates to same-sex couples, the marriage isn’t “official” until it’s “solemnized,” as indicated by the officiant and two witnesses signing the marriage license before it’s returned to whoever issued it.
So making it more difficult for couples to find someone to officiate their marriage ceremony by letting anyone authorized to officiate just up and refuse to do it absolutely makes it more difficult for same-sex couples to get married.
Also, the law is overbroad to the point of absurdity.
With the “conscience of religious beliefs” bit removed, government officials could refuse to perform a marriage for anyone.
Like, say, interracial couples.
Or couples from different religious backgrounds.
Or couples with a big age gap.
Of couples where one person is a 4 and the other is a 9.
And no, getting your best buddy ordained online probably isn’t a clever workaround – Tennessee law specifically prohibits folks who get online ordinations from “solemniz[ing] the rite of matrimony,” although that ban conflicts with the part of their law saying that “all … spiritual leaders of every religious belief … may solemnize the rite of matrimony.”
So you’re kinda opening your wedding up to a legal challenge if you go that route, and with all Tennessee judges either elected or appointed by the governor, I wouldn’t count on that ruling going the way you’d like.
Christ on a bus that state sucks
Anyway, thanks, as ever, for hanging in, and stay rad!