This Week in Statehouse Action: In My Downballot Feelings edition
gotta get the emo out now, nothing but fire allowed from September on
While I haven’t written in this space for a while, I’m still grinding on the state lege stuff, and I talked recently with the inimitable Alan Greenblatt for his latest piece about the impact of Kamala Harris’s entry into the presidential contest (he also has a v nice newsletter – you can sign up for it here [third one down]!)
July was a rough month tbh – Biden’s abysmal debate performance not only put a Democratic presidential win in serious jeopardy, but it absolutely also was poised to drag down Dems at every level of the ballot.
And in state legislative contests – scores of which are decided by just a few hundred votes every single cycle – were probably going to bear the brunt of that drag.
On one hand, state legislative campaigns are mostly messaged, run, and won or lost on local and state-specific issues.
But on the other, these contests are definitely not immune from top-of-ticket concerns. While whoever’s running for president, senator, or governor doesn’t absolutely determine which party will win a state legislative district or majority control of a competitive chamber, these top-ticket candidates – and the vibes they engender – are a penumbra under which candidates further down the ballot must labor.
But now Democrats get Kamala Harris and Tim Walz, and while their candidacy certainly doesn’t ensure that Dems are going to sweep statehouse races in key swing states, it sure as hell puts these downballot candidates in a better position than they were in a mere month ago.
So yes, the vibes are good. But vibes don’t win elections any more than money does.
But, like money, having the vibes on your side definitely makes it easier to communicate your message, organize, promote voter turnout, and more.
Dems nationally now have the vibes they’ve been desperately short of since … well, a it’s been a long damn time.
But will they have the money for statehouse races?
Depends who you ask!
On one hand, there are the publicly available claims from the parties involved in elected state legislatures.
The RSLC (the central vehicle by which Republicans support downballot candidates) announced earlier this summer that it planned to spend $38 million this year.
…which sounds like a lot until you stack it against the $160 million that Democratic groups (DLCC, Sister District, and others) have pledged to spend supporting state legislative candidates.
Worse (for Republicans, to be clear), just four years ago, the RSLC committed to investing $125 million to prevent Democrats from flipping legislatures ahead of the last round of redistricting (a goal set back in 2015, by the by).
Look, I’m no math whiz, but $38 million sure seems like a lot less than $125 million.
Worse still, in the long-ago time of 2010 (for folks not ancient like your humble author, that’s the year Republicans flipped 22 legislative chambers and took brutal control of a round of redistricting that gave the GOP false majorities in both many states for the better part of the last decade and, for a time, the U.S. House), the RSLC raised $30 million (an unheard-of sum for these little-noticed races at the time).
Again, not a math whiz, but $30 million isn’t much less than $38 million, and when you adjust for inflation (2010 was a loooooong time ago, y’all!), the RSLC raised about $43 million in today’s dollars – which I’m pretty sure is more than $38 million.
By the by, DLCC alone is investing $60 million this cycle (not “year,” notably, but it looks like they only pumped $2.2 million into Virginia in 2023).
Unrelated: I’d totally forgotten that Benjy Sarlin [now with Semafor] wrote this epic 2010-redistrcting-fallout piece back in 2014; definitely worth a read if you’re interested in a GOP gerrymandering history lesson.
I’m willing to bet that the transformation of big parts of the Republican Party apparatus (including, but not limited to, state parties) into a Trump-enabling operation has something to do with this feeble funding, but A. I definitely don’t know for sure, and B. it’s academic; the result is what matters at this point in the cycle.
Anyway, so, yeah, Dems (nationally, anyway) seem to be pretty far ahead in the money race (and most of the groups involved have a history of spending it well).
But it’s a pretty well-evidenced fact that a lot of extremely rich conservatives understand the importance of state legislative elections on both their precious sensibilities and business bottom lines.
Consequently, it’s fair to expect some extremely rich conservatives to cut (admittedly last-minute) checks to help elect Republicans to state legislatures between now and November.
Additionally, there’s the recurring phenomenon of The Big Shiny.
For decades (probably longer, I’m just speaking from my own experience and knowledge), presidential elections have been the object of the Democratic establishment’s ardor – to the practical exclusion of state legislative races (and, honestly, anything sub-governor).
Since about 2014, Democrats have mostly woken up to the crucial nature of redistricting to the nation’s political health and the party’s political fortunes, but the connection of that understanding to big donor investment in the races that directly impact redistricting – statehouse contests – remains a little dodgy (though it certainly has improved over the past decade).
Underscoring these concerns is a press release the DLCC issued just as the DNC was ending: On Heels of Wildly Successful Convention, More Resources Needed for State Legislative Races.
On one hand, there’s really no such thing as Too Much Money in state legislative races; the day any political committee says “Okay, we can stop asking for money now, we’re set” is a day that will literally never come.
On the other hand, if the DLCC were able to pull in the kinds of fundraising sums raised by the DCCC, the DCCC’s congressional maps would be an awful lot fairer, because Republican statehouse majorities wouldn’t have been able to gerrymander them.
In truth, no matter what the status of their fundraising, the DLCC is and will always be correct in saying, “While hundreds of millions of dollars pour into top-of-the-ticket races, we need to see those investments happening at the state ballot level in order to make the Democratic agenda real for everyday people.”
But where should those investments go?
Helpfully, if it’s a presidential swing state, it’s likely a top target for state legislative campaigners, too (Kansas being the outlier here).
Specifically, lots of resources on both sides of the aisle are going to:
Arizona House and Senate: Rs have two-seat majorities in both chambers.
Kansas: Democrats need to flip two House seats and/or three Senate seats to break Republicans’ supermajorities in either chamber, giving Dems a chance to actually uphold Gov. Laura Kelly’s vetoes.
Michigan House: Dems have a two-seat majority; the Senate isn’t up this year.
Minnesota House: Rs need to pick up four to flip it from Democratic control.
*Minnesota Senate special election: Senate District 45 is vacant, and Dems need to hold this seat on Nov. 5 to keep their majority in the chamber. Notwithstanding future specials, the chamber isn’t up again until 2026.
North Carolina House and Senate: Because of mid-decade GOP re-gerrymandering, the play here isn’t for majority control; rather, it’s flipping one seat in each chamber while holding on to all of their current seats to break Republican supermajorities
Pennsylvania House and Senate: Dems need to hold on – and ideally expand – their one-seat majority in the House and flip three of the 25 Senate seats on the ballot this year to win trifecta control of state government
Wisconsin Assembly: With actual fair maps, the Badger State’s lower chamber is absolutely in play for both parties.
Other states are on smart observers’ radar for various reasons – Nevada, New Hampshire, Georgia come to mind immediately – but the above are the top priorities, regardless of which side of the aisle you call home.
Soon I’ll be digging into candidates and campaigns and ballot measures and all manner of things that are Extremely Big Deals this fall.
But until then, have a great weekend!
And take care of yourself out there.
You’re important.
We need you.